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Comment count is 37
exy - 2020-11-04

"But we already called cheatsies!" -- Juniorz


The Mothership - 2020-11-04

Loving the choices of profile picture for each candidate in the upper right-hand corner.


Nominal - 2020-11-04

It's just a composite of averages.


Nominal - 2020-11-04

Jesus fuck. It's looking like Biden is barely going to squeak in with 270 votes.

What's really terrifying isn't the army of Trump lawyers ready to try and toss swing ballots or kick the whole thing up to the supreme court, it's the realization that one...single...faithless blue state elector is going to hand the whole thing to Trump in a contingent election. There were FIVE last election.

You could say those were made from the position of making a statement since Trump was going to win anyway, but how hard would it be for a single state's republican legislators to slip just one in? Or dear god, there STILL being Bernie busters willing to hand it all to Trump to "send a message"?

Not that they aren't shameless enough to steal it openly, but Republicans would get the cherry on top of plausible deniability since the faithless didn't technically vote for Trump.


Nominal - 2020-11-04

Here's hoping a miracle comes through in Pennsylvania. Biden trailing by 2.7 points with 3.5% votes remaining to be counted.


Nominal - 2020-11-04

Then we can move on to the next fun topic: what scorched earth tactics is the Trump administration going to pull in the lame duck session?


simon666 - 2020-11-04

It's going to be more than that. PA will be +100k for Biden; AZ will tighten, by maybe a point, but much of the remaining ballots are from counties that favor Biden. GA of all places is on track to give Biden a win (they are going to report final count between 12am and 3am EST tonight), as Biden is only down 35k votes and all ballots remaining (5%) to be counted are mail-in from Dem counties. And in NV it looks like there could be another 70k votes to be counted that will lean Biden so his .6% lead should grow when they announce tomorrow.

Nominal, you're wrong on PA numbers. I'll get some in a second.


simon666 - 2020-11-04

This is from an hour ago. I'm copying it off twitter from Ryan Matsumoto:

PENNSYLVANIA MATH:

Trump +195,953 votes
6,277,135 votes reporting
~88% estimated vote reporting
~855,973 votes remaining
Biden must win remaining votes 525,963 to 330,010.
Biden must win remaining ballots 61% - 39%.

After the above was posted Nate Silver replied to the above data with some context:

Biden has won the last 600k ballots counted in Pennsylvania by 50 points, which is much bigger than the 22-point margin he needs the rest of the way out.


exy - 2020-11-04

it is at the very least ... /disappointing/ ... that it's a squeaker


simon666 - 2020-11-04

Sorry, correction on GA final count. GA allows until Friday for ballot cures/corrections; but we'll get a good sense of things when some counties report between 12-3am tonight.


simon666 - 2020-11-04

I'm thinking 291-307, the latter if GA goes.

I'm okay with a squeaker, given that:

JFK '60: 303
Nixon '68: 301
Carter '77: 297
GWB '00: 271
GWB '04: 286
Trump '16: 305


SolRo - 2020-11-04

It's going to be such a great 2-4 years watching bitch mcconel block every piece of legislation and judicial appointment because "blah blah blah whatever excuse he makes up".

And that will be considered a success, because american politics is a team sport where winner takes all, and who gives a fuck if nothing of value is achieved so long as the team that's on my hat wins.

I hate living in this country so much.


Nominal - 2020-11-05

No clue what the DNC was thinking pouring so much money into Kentucky.


Nominal - 2020-11-05

I'm not sure about PA. The supreme court basically punted on ballots received after election day. Right now, they're being counted, but they have to separate them from the ballots received by the 3rd.

This is obviously to make it easier to throw them out once the court revisits the case, this time with Justice Serena Joy Barret to ensure a cult majority.


simon666 - 2020-11-05

@steve_vladeck
· 23h

The 1M+ mail-in ballots PA is still counting are those that were received *on time.*

The #SCOTUS case is about those received *late," which PA is storing *separately.*

So even *if* late-arriving ballots are an issue, that has nothing to do with counting all of the on-time ones.


Nominal - 2020-11-06

LET ME HAVE MY PESSIMISM ARMOR


Bort - 2020-11-06

"No clue what the DNC was thinking pouring so much money into Kentucky."

Probably the same thing they were thinking when they were pouring money into Georgia. At least as of 11-6-2020, it's looking like Georgia's going to go blue.

Every election, the dumbasses complain that the Democrats didn't spend enough money on states they lost, or they complain about the Democrats spending too much money on states they lost. The only constant is the dumbasses complaining.


Nominal - 2020-11-06

You're saying the 5 point margin of Georgia in 2016 was the exact same flippable possibility as the 30 point margin of Kentucky, Bort? Are you well?


Crackersmack - 2020-11-06

Charles Booker would have beat Mitch McConnell but instead of risking giving some power to the actual constituents of Kentucky's poorest areas, the Dems decided that wealthy white women with college degrees needed more representation in the senate, so they nominated a highly competent and accomplished military lesbian vanity candidate constructed to appeal specifically to them, and they all voted for Mitch McConnell anyway.


SolRo - 2020-11-06

You really should go into political advocacy with your perfect ability to see the future in hindsight.


Crackersmack - 2020-11-06

Speaking of that, when's the imminent fascist insurrection happening? I thought we were going to be in shootouts with the proud boys by now given the hyperbole of the last 4 years. Where's the refusal to leave office? Isn't Trump supposed to be something much more extreme than a normal shitty Republican?


SolRo - 2020-11-06

You can ask that dumb hypocritical after Biden is sworn in without incident.


Nominal - 2020-11-06

And the "usual dumbasses" include several Dem representatives who barely won or lost in swing districts. Good thing they poured tens of millions into the biggest lost cause in the country out of sheer blue wave hubris.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/us/house-democrats-election -losses.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20201106&instance_id=23862& nl=the-morning®i_id=95760303&segment_id=43736&te=1&user_id=4101 fc7558054680d5709e5070deeb37


Bort - 2020-11-08

"You're saying the 5 point margin of Georgia in 2016 was the exact same flippable possibility as the 30 point margin of Kentucky, Bort? Are you well?"

Okay, how much DID the DNC spend in Georgia and Kentucky? Post the numbers. I admit I'm having trouble finding them, which is enough to make me wonder whether you have them.

But whatever they spent, do you think part of the reason to push hard in Kentucky might have been, I don't know, that McConnell was up for re-election? That fucker may well be Senate majority leader come January, and we'll have another couple years of obstruction. Again, if the Democrats hadn't at least tried to unseat McConnell, you'd be moaning, "why didn't the Democrats spend more?"

Also, Biden won, so what exactly are you complaining about? It's not like spending in Kentucky (however much it was) resulted in a Biden loss.


simon666 - 2020-11-05

@RalstonReports
·
10m
Biden is up by 11.4K right now in NV.

Dems are going to win these mail ballots coming in from Election Day and yesterday -- 63K. And they should win them decisively. That leaves 60K provisionals, which have been evenly split.

I see no path left for Trump here.


SolRo - 2020-11-05

Unfaithful electoral college voters could always steal the election in this tight a race, and that would look so good when Trump is losing the popular vote by ~4 million, the equivalent of several red states.


simon666 - 2020-11-05

Didn't SCOTUS rule that there couldn't be faithless electors?


SolRo - 2020-11-05

Luckily there’s a whole new and exciting SCOTUS


simon666 - 2020-11-05

The decision was unanimous in July, so I'm confident it's not going to be overturned.


Nominal - 2020-11-05

The supreme court didn't outlaw them. It ruled that states CAN sanction or remove them.

Guess who's in charge of the battleground states?


Nominal - 2020-11-05

For the Washington state faithless, the only thing that happened to him was a $1000 fine, which he sued over.

At this point, Trump could straight up thank them for handing him the election, issue pardons, and pay their fines. His cult will still love him and insist he did nothing wrong.


Nominal - 2020-11-05

and here's the relevant text to that ruling

" The “sparse instructions [in the Constitution] took no position on how independent from—or how faithful to—party and popular preferences the electors’ votes should be.” "


simon666 - 2020-11-05

I don't blame you for being pessimistic. But I'm not going to have that worry until that bridge is crossed.

Right now Trump is ahead in GA by fewer than 4k votes, 98% reporting.

PA Erie county was good for Biden; he'll close the gap with Philly County and the remaining counties outstanding is a win, or may win before Philly is counted. This may happen tonight.


simon666 - 2020-11-05

Basically, I'm saying is feel the thrill of the fight, get ready to support the GA runoff Senate races, and prepare to kick ass in 2022.


simon666 - 2020-11-06

We can probably breathe easy about PA faithless electors:

@rgoodlaw
· 21m
Majority Leader of the #Pennsylvania State Senate, @JakeCorman statement read by Santorum:

“The PA election code says electors go to the popular vote winner. The Legislature has no ability to appoint electors.”


Nominal - 2020-11-06

LET ME HAVE MY PESSIMISM ARMOR


Hazelnut - 2020-11-09

We now know Biden has 290 electors vs Trump’s 214 - not a bad spread given the racist setup of the electoral college. I can imagine 5 or 10 faithless electors but Trump would need 39.


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