I dunno, man. Barack kinda gives me the vapors myself.

I doubt it. That would destroy his career. There's a lot of elderly people who show up to these things, they're on their feet and its hot. There are probably fainters at all the shows. Maybe other guys don't stop their fucking speeches for it. Or maybe Obama is just really dreamy.

"Need a dispenser here!"

"Need a teleporter here!"

Hey! There's a spy over here!

Need a dispenser here!

Interesting that even you can't envision a scenario where McCain wins this on his own merits.

I can definitely picture him winning this on his own merits. He's always been a big crossover act- the Joe Lieberman of the Republican party. Righ-wingers will vote for him because who the hell else are they gonna vote for? And left-leaning swing voters might vote for him because hey! He's that guy from the Daily Show! Not withstanding the Ann Coulter fans who will line up in droves to vote for Hillary, I figure he's got at least even money no matter which of the Dems finally claws to the top.

Plus, the fucker survived a Vietnamese tiger cage! That's got to count for something, right?

McCain can't win because:


1) He has no money (the recent news where he accused Obama of going back on his word over the government campaign funding is a weak ruse that will not stick, and even if it wasn't, nobody really cares)

2) He won't insult Mexicans to make angry rednecks love him. The "Latino" advantage the Republicans have had in the past couple elections are down the toilet.

3) Will have difficulties with the Iraq war. He has endorsed increasing the troop levels by massive levels before. basically, he will be stuck with either saying that the troops should stay (status quo) or increasing the troops (not possible). McCain is open to many areas of attack, especially if Obama were to choose a decorated veteran as a running mate.

4) Ron Paul will probably run as a third party candidate to make a statement or something.

5) McCain has not had any time to establish a platform. Nobody knows how he can fix the trillion dollar deficit caused by his incumbent party.

6) He's already lost twice, why should he win this time? Because Bush stole the election? Not good enough. Bush didn't steal the election, remember? He reminds people of bad things from way back when, as in now.

I think most Republicans will just stay at home.

I think McCain could possibly beat Clinton though. She is easy to tear to pieces. Obama has energized the left like no other candidate since Robert Kennedy. He is already being hailed as the savior of the new world by other countries.

...which is all well and nice for the people who would be voting left anyway, but if we're talking Obama instead of Hillary, then most of your points are out the window. First off, so what if rednecks aren't pleased with McCain? Do you really think they'll vote for Hillary "Woodstock" Clinton or Barack Obama Bin Laden? No, of course not. I'd like to pretend that Ron Paul could be a serious spoiler, a la Nader, but *cough cough* IT'S RON PAUL. McCain's position on the Iraq war is typical center-right, and seeing as Hillary is somewhat lukewarm about the thing I fail to see how that's a big point against him... except for leftists, whom he doesn't have to please since they won't vote for him in the first place. Who cares what OTHER countries are saying? Other countries can't vote in the US presidential elections. And he lost the PRIMARY twice. That's an important distinction: during primaries, obviously, you have to appeal to your own party. Centrists and wouldbe partisan turncoats don't fare so well in primaries, but they DO fare well in official elections for the same reason. If I didn't have such a dim view of the Republican party as a whole (not that I have a good view of ANY party, mind you), I'd say that finally greenlighting McCain was a fiendishly clever ploy to cinch the election yet again. They know a hardliner won't play well after Bush, so they field a centrist who can draw off just enough votes from The Hippie and The Coloured to ensure that the Republicans control the White House for yet another four-to-eight years.

And as for "Repubicans won't turn up to vote", no offense, but I don't think that even bears addressing. But hey, if you wish hard enough, maybe, just maybe, every state between California and New England will suddenly and mysteriously sink into the ocean on November 3?

It's not really a wish. It has to do with a serious rift in the Republican party that did not exist four years ago. It has to do with doubts in the economy and a serious lack of morale after 8 years of total power and very little to show for it.

If the primaries are even a slight harbinger of the general election turnout, then I don't feel that I'm that off the mark.


Tennessee GOP turnout weak
http://tndp.org/thedonkeysmouth/?p=38

Virginia GOP turnout weak
http://cofcc.org/?p=1174

Both of these states went to Bush twice, and Tennessee went to Bush in a landslide both elections. If these two states are any indicator, McCain is going to have a very difficult time beating Obama, unless Clinton voters would rather vote McCain over Obama. That is certainly possible, though a little too fuzzy.

Your reasons for believing that McCain will have an easy victory over Obama are refuted within your own post. You say Republicans don't care, they will vote for him out of default. Defaults do not bring people to the voting booths. Obama has raised over a million dollars a day and that's in mostly 0 or lower donations. There is simply nothing to compare to this moment in history anywhere in the timeline of our country. Obama bin Laden is also an effective redneck motivator, but then again a conservative Indian was just elected governor of Louisiana.

Evilhomer, your post is based on the premise that there is some sort of magical redneck magnet which will draw conservatives involuntarily to the polls even if they aren't motivated for any candidate. Just disliking the other guy isn't enough to get the turnout needed to win an election. About a fourth of the Republican party hates McCain, and another fourth is so unenthused by him that they'd rather just stay home on election day. Republican turnout is going south at the same time that Democratic turnout is rising to unprecedented levels. A Clinton nomniation might just rile the right up enough to make this a contest, but if Obama gets picked, McCain will need a miracle to get enough of his base off their asses and into the voting booths.

Oh, and people in other countries do vote. There are thousands of US expatriots all over the world who will cast votes in this election, and their ballots count just as much as yours.

Oh, sure, there are US citizens who can vote overseas, but forgive me for not realising the phrase "He is already being hailed as the savior of the new world by other countries" REALLY MEANS "Bob MovedtoFrance and Sgt John ThirdTourInIraq are going to be turning in plenty of absentee ballots for the Democratic candidate". Also, while it's all well and nice to say Republicans don't much care for McCain, that doesn't really explain why he smoked the competition and got his Party's clear endorsement this time around. If Republicans aren't willing to vote for him, why is their primary over and done with?

And there's no magical magnet, I just don't see why I should place my faith in redneck apathy. I mean, look, remember 2004? Common sense told you that Kerry couldn't possibly lose. You could have fielded Caligula's horse against Bush and the Republican party would have blown away like so much dust in the wind. I remember having conversations almost exactly like this (only I was on the other side at the time) with my "one Republican friend"- look at the poll numbers, look at the economy, look what he's done to our international image, look at this funny cartoon by Tom Tomorrow etc etc. And you remember what happened the day after the election? That stunned, crushing, speechless horror that descended over the land? As if gravity itself had been proven wrong, and we were all left staring at weighted sin?

I'm not saying McCain WILL win. I'm not saying he SHOULD win (although I wouldn't mind him, again, tiger cage, I get wet from little pointless embelishments like that). But while it's all very nice to assume that Republicans won't vote in a national election or Obama's fundraising skills will secure him the win (assuming he even gets the nom), I'm going to withhold any foregone conclusions until AFTER the election is finished, thanks!

P.S. For the record, if I'm going to engage in any fantasy play here, it'll revolve around a comeback by Gravel followed by a Gravel/ Ron Paul superteam that sweeps the nationals and ushers in a new golden age of reason and viral marketing campaigns. IT COULD HAPPEN GUYS.

EvilHomer in 2008

Homer, I hope you at least looked at the second link that I posted, because it's indicative of what I'm talking about. And no, I didn't think Kerry could possibly win. A lot of us knew that he was probably not going to win.

"The Republican National Committee is going to have a hard sell to get tens of millions of conservatives to go to the polls and vote for a guy they don’t like. Especially when McCain will most likely run a national campaign that panders to Hispanics and plays up his role in the Senate Amnesty Bill. Hispanics have been voting Clinton in the Democratic primary, and it is likely that McCain will believe he can capture the Hispanic vote from the Democrats."

This was written by a conservative that I believe represents what is happening in the Republican party right now.

And you are not correct in saying that McCain "smoked" his competition. McCain's campaign was practically bankrupt. What happened was that Giuliani proved to the country that he was a moron and a goof and Romney, despite all his cash, was just off. McCain was the default, as you said (but are now saying he smoked the competition).

As for 2004, common sense did not tell me that Kerry was going to win. I liked Kerry, but knew that he couldn't pull it off. Like McCain, Kerry was a war hero that emerged as the default candidate, but he was for the war and so changed his platform to a position that always kept him on the defensive. McCain will have to do the same thing in reverse. Kerry also had a stage presence resembling something like a sloth leaning against a microphone. McCain is something like Howard Dean with bigger jowls and less John Cougar Mellencamp.

Pretty much, if a democrat is not elected this time around, there can never be a democratic president ever again.

...and Kerry was also running against Bush. Caligula's horse has the stage presence of... well, a horse, and we've already established he could have won in 2004. The Democrats might be fielding somehwat more electable candidates this time around (one would assume; God knows how the country will react to Woman and the Black-Black) but you can't forget that they failed to unseat the most un-re-electable candidate this nation has had since William Henry Harrison. We can sit here playing "what if" games all we want; the plain fact of the matter is that nothing is ever certain in elections, and the Republicans have been consistently beating the "odds" for the past eight years. So until President Gravel gives his inaugural address on Al-Jazeera West "The Official News-station of the International Occupation Forces in North America", I'm not going to stick my foot out.

Anyways, yes, I did read the link, and it was very interesting to hear what Random Conservative Pundit #12,398 had to say about McCain and the future of voter turnout. Far be it from me to scoff at the authority of any right-winger on the internet, let alone the mighty and vaunted Council of Conservative Citizens! Vague inferences and veiled insinuations from them carry the Word of Law here in Internet Land, and between those- what? Three paragraphs?- and Ann Coulter's "I'ma vote for Hillary" stance, I admit that things look MIGHTY BLEAK for our plucky hero. But again, McCain won the nomination by a clear and easy majority. Hardline rightwingers might not be enthused about him, but aside from Coulter, they'll vote for him for lack of anyone "better". And, unlike Hillary let's say, he can count on supporters across party lines. Maybe not enough, but we'll see.

I'm fascinated by your last sentence, though: "Pretty much, if a democrat is not elected this time around, there can never be a democratic president ever again." How do you mean? Will the Democrats pack up and go home? Will the Republicans institute martial law and outlaw rival parties? Or is this just another way of saying "the Democrats HAVE to win this time, by golly they just HAVE to! PLEASE!!!!"? Because if it's the latter, hmmm, where have I heard THAT before?

As if there weren't other reasons to vote Obama, I will do it purely in hopes of hearing the tidal roar of impotent outrage from you and your ilk.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svo9mutE6TM

You've been lied to, sorry.

Are you that youtube lady who was telling the "Subway Hate the Troops" story? Please say yes.

You know this guy's way too busy forwarding e-mails from Bill Gates in order to collect that big Microsoft check to follow through on this stuff, right?

oh, abeliscon. why do you have to do this? you have school tomorrow.

I don't know about what this guy's saying, but I DO know Obama's got a Che flag in his campaign office, and that scares the shit outta me.

Billy, the point that staff member was trying to make is that it would scare a fucking jackass retard like you. It's a "joke."

I remember when Eisenhower personally built the highways.