The white working class 6%, the so-called moderate swing voters, while not as important as they were 15 years ago, are still a big force in the rust belt.

Obama lost white working class voters by a margin of 62-36 in 2012. The idea that Trump could beat that while compensating for the black swans of women turning out in droves to vote for Clinton (and it's going to be Clinton) or newly minted American citizens from South of the border turning out in legions to vote for anybody but Trump is dubious. I think Trump could beat Sanders on fear tactics but Clinton will beat Trump by several million votes.

If Clinton could hold on to Latino-heavy states like Florida, Colorado and New Mexico while also maintaining the states Obama won by wide margins, she could comfortably lose Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio and still become president. I think it's a far cry to see heavily pro-Clinton places like Michigan and Pennsylvania go the way of Trump though. It would be a huge deal.

They've been trying to sabotage him from the beginning. They pulled out all the the stops for Carson and Jeb and now they're putting all of their support behind Rubio and Cruz. The neocon wing, lead by Bill Kristol, is threatening to jump ship and start a third party. The libertarians and Reagan felchers at National Review call him a liberal every chance they get because he wants nothing to do with their brand of small-government conservatism. He's hated by the Republican establishment, which isn't surprising considering how much disdain they have for the sort of people he appeals to: working-class whites. That's one thing they have in common with Democrats.